For $23,389 you can get a brand new HD ultra in one of their sunglo colors. What do you get for that beyond the Indian, well the ultra has cruise control, abs braking and a security system. Also a tour pak, plus the comfortable passenger pad and arm rests, to include additional speakers and controls for the radio/intercom/cb system.
Additionally there are over 1400 dealerships in the us alone, as compared to Indian who plan to have 125 nationwide, sometime in the future. That means that service for the HD is far easier to come by, not to mention all the other shops that service V-twins and will have parts available for quick repairs.
Other items for thought are the accessories available. HD has their parts and accessories catalog, not to mention Kuryakyn, Custom Chrome, Drag Specialties, just to name a few. Thousands of parts and accessories are available for the HD from many different vendors. The Indian will most likely be very proprietary for some time (kind of like BDM) so accessorizing will be limited.
On the plus side, at least Victory dropped the price of the indian, making it at least affordable. I'm sure that it will have it's appeal with those that owned Indians at one time or another, or the Victory owner looking to upgrade, or the person that wants something a little different (like many BDM owners) and will pay more for it.
But I don't see any real impact in regard to HD. HD has been producing their motorcycles non-stop since 1903. The motor company has the best marketing in the business. They've created an entire lifestyle and culture around their product. It's almost scary, like a huge global cult.
Maybe Polaris can pull it off, but down the road I see the Indian line and the Victory line (Victian? Vindian?) morphing into a knockoff HD product like Honda and Yamaha has tried to do, and resulting in something that supposed to look like a HD, but isn't and then when the owner looks to resell the machine, is completely shocked at how little value is retained.